Should I pay off debt or invest?
Run the numbers.
Compare your effective debt cost against expected investment returns to see which move wins.
| Scenario | Return | Eff. Debt Rate | SpreadspreadThe difference between the market price of Bitcoin and what an exchange actually charges you, a hidden cost on top of stated transaction fees.Full definition | Verdict |
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How this is calculated
If your interest is tax-deductible, the effective debt rate = APR × (1 − marginal tax rate). Otherwise, the effective rate equals the APR.
The tool compares that effective rate against your expected return. If the effective debt rate is greater than or equal to the expected return, paying off debt first is the higher-EVExpected Value (EV)The probability-weighted average outcome of a bet or decision. Positive EV means the average outcome is profitable, but any single trial can still lose. In mining: your expected blocks times block value minus your cost. move. If returns exceed the debt rate, investing wins on paper, but the spread matters.
The scenario table shows bear (return − 2%), base, and bull (return + 3%) cases so you can see how sensitive the decision is.
Last updated 2026-06-03 · Verify · Disclosures · Pairs with /debt-types/