Bitcoin's price,
from $0 to here.

2009–2012: Genesis

Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper on October 31, 2008, and mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009. The first known commercial Bitcoin transaction was Laszlo Hanyecz buying two Papa John's pizzas for 10,000 BTC on May 22, 2010, a purchase worth roughly $950 million at today's price.

The first real exchange listing was on Mt. Gox in July 2010 at $0.06. By April 2011, BTC hit $1, an 18x year. The first major bubble peaked at $32 in June 2011, then crashed 93% to $2 by November.

The 2012 halving, the first ever, passed quietly. Price was $13 at the event. Almost nobody noticed. Within a year, Bitcoin would 80x.

2013: First Mania ($13 → $1,150)

The first major cycle. BTC ran from $13 to $260 in April 2013 on the back of the Cyprus bank bail-in, which seized up to 47.5% of depositor funds over €100K. For the first time, Bitcoin had a narrative, digital gold you couldn't be bailed-in out of.

BTC crashed 70% to ~$80 in July, then began a second leg up. Silk Road seizure headlines dominated the news. By November 30, 2013, BTC peaked at $1,150.^[1] A Papa John's pizza would've cost roughly one BTC. Mainstream financial press called it a bubble. They were right, in the short term.

2014–2015: First Crypto Winter ($1,150 → $160)

On February 7, 2014, Mt. Gox, then handling ~70% of all Bitcoin trading, halted withdrawals. On February 28, it filed for bankruptcy, revealing that 850,000 BTC (4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist) had been lost or stolen. The exchange's CEO, Mark Karpelès, was arrested the following year.

BTC bled out over the next year and a half, bottoming around $160 in January 2015. For most people who owned Bitcoin at the 2013 peak, the round trip took until late 2016 to recover. If you'd DCA'd through 2014–2015, you made life-changing money on the next leg up.

2016: Slow Recovery + 2nd Halving ($430 → $960)

The second halving was the first one people actually priced in. BTC traded sideways around $650 through the July event and slowly grinded up through the second half of the year. By December, it hit $960, still below the 2013 peak, but the foundation for 2017 was being laid.

2017: ICO Mania ($960 → $19,700)

The ICO bubble. Every Ethereum-based token that promised to "disrupt" something raised millions of dollars from retail investors. Most went to zero. Bitcoin's scaling debate split into Bitcoin Cash (August 2017 hard fork), but the market chose Bitcoin.

BTC broke $1,000 in January, $10,000 in November, and $19,700 on December 17, 2017.^[1] Financial media covered it daily. Your cab driver told you to buy it. Mainstream adoption narrative exploded. CME Group launched Bitcoin futures on December 17, and that date marked the exact top.

2018–2019: Second Crypto Winter ($19,700 → $3,200)

Brutal 12-month drawdown. The ICO market died. Ethereum lost 94% from its peak. Bitcoin held $3,200 in December 2018 and mostly grinded sideways through 2019, with a brief pop to $13,000 in June on "Bakkt launching" and "Libra announcement" hype, both of which faded.

By late 2019, BTC was around $7,000. Nobody outside the core community cared. Infrastructure (Lightning, hardware wallets, custody solutions) quietly matured. The stage was being set for the next cycle, but almost nobody believed one was coming.

2020: COVID + 3rd Halving ($7,200 → $29,000)

March 12, 2020, "Black Thursday", Bitcoin crashed 50% in a single day as global markets seized up. The Fed responded with unprecedented monetary stimulus, expanding M2 by roughly 40% over the next 25 months. That expansion was the match; Bitcoin was the fuse.

The May 2020 halving came and went without much price action. Then on August 11, 2020, MicroStrategy (now Strategy, led by Michael Saylor) announced the purchase of 21,454 BTC for $250M (~$11,653/BTC average) as corporate treasury.^[4] It was the first public company to allocate significantly to Bitcoin. Square (now Block) followed in October with a $50M buy. Tesla bought $1.5B in February 2021. The institutional narrative had arrived.

2021: Institutional Bull ($29,000 → $69,000)

The cycle peaked twice. First peak April 14, 2021 at ~$64,000, same day Coinbase went public on Nasdaq. BTC crashed 55% to ~$29,000 by July as China banned mining. Then, as hash rate recovered abroad, BTC ran back to $69,044 on November 10, 2021.^[1]

El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender on September 7, 2021, the first country in history. The government bought 400 BTC at ~$52K each; today that stack is worth double. Under the December 2024 IMF Extended Fund Facility, the mandatory-acceptance provision was rolled back to voluntary, though national treasury accumulation continues. See institutional adoption for the current status.

2022: Terra + FTX ($69,000 → $15,500)

The contagion year. Terra/LUNA collapsed in May, a $40 billion algorithmic stablecoin that had relied on reflexive price stability. Celsius and Voyager followed. Three Arrows Capital imploded. On November 11, 2022, FTX, which days earlier had been valued at $32 billion, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware with an estimated ~$8B in customer funds missing.^[6] Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas, extradited, and eventually convicted of fraud, sentenced to 25 years.

Bitcoin hit $15,500 on November 21, 2022. Anyone who held self-custody through all of it kept every satoshi. Anyone who held on an exchange that failed lost everything (with some partial recoveries years later, in devalued dollars). The lesson, "not your keys, not your coins", was rewritten in losses.

2023: Recovery + ETF Hype ($16,500 → $42,000)

Quiet accumulation year. BlackRock filed its spot Bitcoin ETF application in June 2023, a major legitimacy signal from the world's largest asset manager. Multiple other issuers followed. BTC grinded from $16,500 to $42,000 by year-end, largely on ETF-approval anticipation.

2024: ETF Launch + 4th Halving ($42,000 → $108,000)

The most significant year since 2017. On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single order; trading began January 11, 2024.^[3] BlackRock's IBIT became the fastest-growing ETF in history, attracting tens of billions in inflows within months.

The halving came on April 19 at block 840,000 with new issuance cut to 3.125 BTC per block. Historical BTC stock-to-flow after the 4th halving is approximately 120, about twice gold's ~60.

2025–2026: Current Cycle ($93,000 → ~$95,000)

Bitcoin is in the grinding, less-volatile phase of the post-halving cycle. Each halving's percentage gains have diminished as the market cap has grown (+9,000% after halving 1 → +2,900% after 2 → +600% after 3 → ongoing). Absolute dollar returns are still massive; percentage returns mature.

Every major drawdown

Bitcoin has had four drawdowns greater than 75% in its history. It has recovered from every single one to new highs.

Pattern: the draw-downs get shallower and the recoveries get faster as market depth increases. The 2011–2015 drawdowns were 87–93%. The 2021–22 drawdown was 77%. As more deep-pocketed buyers accumulate, the bottom becomes harder to reach.

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