Your FIRE number,
with and without Bitcoin.
Enter your annual expenses to estimate a financial-independence portfolio target and how long it would take to reach it. Compare scenarios with Bitcoin in the portfolio.
The question it answersWhat is my FIRE number, and how does holding Bitcoin change the timeline?
Rules: United States. Privacy: runs in your browser. What you enter stays on your device.
Looking for something close? FIRE & Coast-FIRE Number: your target, a Coast-FIRE number and years to FI across bear, base and bull returns, from your age. Savings Rate to FI: how many years a given savings rate buys, since saving more also lowers what you must fund.
Projection, not a promise. The result follows the assumptions you enter. Real results will differ, sometimes by a lot.
What this tool assumes
- Inflation-adjustedInflation-adjustedAdjusted for rising prices. Some amounts move with inflation, like IRS tax brackets, TIPS principal, or I-bond rates. Others are restated in today's dollars so different years can be compared: by the BLS consumer price index, $30,000 in 1985 bought about what $93,000 buys in 2026. (real) returns. All projections use real returns, so inflationinflationA general increase in prices over time, meaning each dollar buys less than it did before.Full definition is already netted out.
- Safe withdrawal rateSafe withdrawal rateThe share of a portfolio you can withdraw in the first year of retirement, then raise with inflation each year, without running out of money over a set horizon in historical tests. William Bengen's 1994 study of a 50/50 US stock and bond portfolio found 4% lasted at least 30 years and 3-3.5% lasted 50 years or more. default 4 percent. Based on Bengen (1994) over a 30-year retirement horizon verify×DON'T TRUST, VERIFYClaim: The 4 percent safe withdrawal guideline originates from William Bengen's 1994 Journal of Financial Planning paper over a 30-year horizon.Verify at: Bengen 1994 (FPA archive) ↗ Source 2 in the list belowBengen tested historical US market data and identified roughly 4 percent as the 30-year safe rate.. For early retirement horizons of 50+ years, 3 to 3.5 percent is more conservative.
- Contributions assumed to run on schedule. No modeling of missed years, job loss, or career interruptions.
- No sequence-of-returns risk modeled. A 30 percent crash in year one of retirement is worse than the same crash averaged across the timeline, even for the same long-run return.
- No Social Security or pension income. Add these separately if relevant.
- Historical performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns vary year to year.
Three variables move the math:
- Lower target expenses. Every $500 a month you cut from permanent expenses reduces your FIRE number by roughly $150,000 at a 4 percent withdrawal rate.
- Higher savings rateSavings rateThe share of income you save or invest, usually (income minus spending) divided by income. Saving $1,000 of $5,000 take-home pay is a 20% rate. Whether you use gross or take-home pay, and whether 401(k) contributions and an employer match count, changes the number, so compare rates only on the same definition.Full definition. Moving from a 10 percent savings rate to 20 percent cuts your working years by roughly 14 at typical assumptions. See Financial Numbers.
- Longer timeline. Every additional year of saving adds compounding to your ending portfolio.
The goal isn't to hit an exact number by an exact date. It's to understand which variable you can actually control and move it.
Not financial advice. Withdrawal rates are historical guidance, not guarantees.
HOW THIS IS CALCULATED
This tool runs entirely in your browser: no data is sent to any server. The assumptions and default values behind the result are listed under “What this tool assumes” on this page. Verify the methodology or inspect the source code in your browser's dev tools.
Where to go from here
Sources
Verify badges in the text link to these sources. Figures, rates and rules change: check each source’s date before acting on it.
Calculators are educational estimates, not financial advice. Disclosures · How pages are reviewed