Real Numbers, Real Timelines

Case Studies

3 MIN READ

Real numbers,
real timelines.

Anonymized case studies showing what the financial decisions on this site actually look like over time. Real starting points, real monthly amounts, real outcomes.

READING TIME: 10 MIN

THE SHORT VERSION

These are scenarios based on common starting points. Some composite, all plausible based on historical data. Names are not real. Numbers are. The goal is to show what the decisions in the order of operations actually produce over 5 to 10 years.

Case 1: Starting at zero at 22

SITUATION

22-year-old. $38,000 first job. $1,200/month take-home after taxes. $800/month rent. $0 in savings. $12,000 in student loans at 5.5%. No 401(k) contributions yet.

What they did in the first 12 months

Months 1-3: built $1,000 starter emergency fund. Stopped all discretionary spending. Moved checking to Fidelity CMA.
Months 4-6: aggressive student loan paydown while capturing full employer 401(k) match (3% = roughly $95/month into the plan).
Months 7-12: student loans paid off. Opened Roth IRA at Fidelity. Started $100/month Bitcoin DCA on River.

10-year outcome (2014-2024 historical returns)

401(K) BALANCE

~$35,000

at 7% real

ROTH IRA

~$85,000

$500/mo avg

BITCOIN ($100/MO)

~$90,000

historical DCA

TOTAL NET WORTH

~$210,000

at age 32

Key insight: four decisions. The $1,000 emergency fund. The employer match. The Roth IRA. The $100/month into Bitcoin. Ten years later, roughly $210,000. See the DCA math at Bitcoin DCA Backtest.

Case 2: Digging out at 35

SITUATION

35-year-old couple. $110,000 combined income. $28,000 credit card debt across 4 cards, average 22% APR. $340,000 mortgage remaining. $0 in investments. Two kids.

What they did

Avalanche method on credit cards. Highest APR first.
Cut expenses to create $1,800/month margin for debt payment.
23 months to pay off all $28,000 in card debt.
Immediately after: opened Roth IRAs for both spouses.
Started $200/month combined Bitcoin DCA.
Resumed 401(k) match capture (had been suspended during debt paydown).

5-year outcome

Credit card interest saved vs minimum payments: approximately $14,000 (avalanche vs minimums over 5 years).

Roth IRAs combined after 5 years: approximately $35,000 (at 7% real, averaging contributions).

Net worth swing: from negative $28,000 (credit card debt) to approximately $65,000 in invested assets, plus mortgage paydown. The decision to fix the debt before investing made this path faster than running both simultaneously.

Case 3: High income, nothing to show for it

SITUATION

40-year-old. $180,000 income. Lifestyle inflation consumed everything. $4,200/month mortgage. Two car loans totaling $800/month. $0 in retirement accounts. Some equity in the home.

What they did

Sold one car. Used proceeds to pay off both car loans ($800/month freed).
Maxed 401(k) immediately. After-tax impact on take-home: approximately -$720/month (thanks to the 32% federal bracket + state tax savings). See Paycheck Optimizer.
Opened HSA with high-deductible health plan. Maxed to $4,300.
Started Roth conversion ladder planning for eventual early retirement.

10-year projection vs "stayed the course"

Stayed the course: net worth grows primarily via mortgage paydown and home appreciation. Retirement accounts: $0. Projected retirement age to reach $1M: approximately 65.

Changed course at 40: at 50, approximately $385,000 in tax-advantaged retirement accounts (401(k) + HSA + Roth conversion ladder). Retirement achievable at 58 instead of 65.

Case 4: The $100/month Bitcoin decision (January 2017)

SITUATION

Person starts $100/month Bitcoin DCA in January 2017 at ~$970/BTC. They live through 2017 bull run, 2018 crash, 2019-2020 accumulation, 2020-2021 run, 2022 crash, 2023-2024 recovery, 2024 halving.

What actually happened

Using actual monthly closing prices, over ~111 months (January 2017 to April 2026):

TOTAL INVESTED

~$11,100

BTC ACCUMULATED

~1.08 BTC

CURRENT VALUE

~$121,000

What they lived through

Bought through the peak of the 2017 bull run at $13,880/BTC in December 2017.
Bought through the 2018 crash all the way down to $3,742/BTC in December 2018.
Bought through 2019 while Bitcoin was declared dead multiple times.
Bought through the 2022 crash to $16,547/BTC after FTX collapse.
Kept buying. Never timed anything. Never sold.

This person never timed the market. They bought through the 84% crash. They bought when Bitcoin was "dead" in 2018 and 2019. The discipline of the DCA, not skill, not timing, produced the result.

Run any start date and amount yourself: Bitcoin DCA Backtest. Historical returns are not a forecast. The point of this case study is not the return figure. The point is the behavior: consistent monthly buys through multiple 70%+ drawdowns without selling.

→ Personal Finance Order of Operations → Dollar-Cost Averaging → FIRE Guide → Bitcoin DCA Backtest

Last updated 2026-04-22. Not financial advice. Historical returns do not guarantee future results.