Bitcoin allocation range.
What size position fits your situation.
Bitcoin's volatility means position sizing matters more than timing. Answer four questions to find an allocation range that fits your time horizon, drawdown tolerance, and financial situation.
The question it answersWhat percentage of my portfolio should I hold in Bitcoin?
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Worked example: Age 28, 35-year horizon. Would hold comfortably through an 80% drawdown, expecting it. Money is for retirement. Emergency fund and tax-advantaged accounts already in place. Suggested range: 5-20%. At 15% Bitcoin allocation, the position is within range. Rebalance if it drifts above 25% or below 3%.
If Bitcoin falls below 3%: hold and continue DCADollar-cost averaging (DCA)Investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule, such as $50 every payday, regardless of price. It spreads out when money enters the market and buys more units when prices are low, but it does not guarantee a better price than investing all at once, a profit or protection against loss.Full definition, do not chase.
Review allocation annually or after a 30%+ price move.
How this tool works
- This tool synthesizes four risk factors into an allocation range. It is not investment advice. The output is a starting point for thinking, not a recommendation.
- The maximum suggested allocation is 25%, even when all conditions are optimal. Higher allocations may be defensible for very-long-horizon holders with deep conviction, but require explicit acknowledgment of catastrophic-loss risk.
- If your time horizon is under 3 years, the suggested allocation is 0%. Bitcoin's volatility profile is not suitable for short-horizon money. Use cash, T-bills, or short-term Treasuries instead.
- Drawdown tolerance is the binding constraint. An investor who would sell during an 80% drawdown should not hold more than they can watch fall to that level without acting. Pre-commit to your sizing in calm markets, before stress arrives.
- Money purpose matters in two cases: money needed within 5 years caps the range at 0 to 1%, and medium-term savings cap it at the 3 to 10 year range for your drawdown answer (0 to 2% or 2 to 5%), since that money may be spent within about a decade. Retirement and generational wealth give the same range; the horizon, drawdown and financial-situation answers set it.
- The financial-situation answer treats "high-interest debt" as debt above about 6% APR, a site rule of thumb rather than a published standard. Only low-rate debt (a mortgage, a cheap car loan) belongs under "no high-interest debt".
- The site has documented Bitcoin's history of drawdowns of 77% to 94%: 2011 (-94%), 2014-15 (-86%), 2018 (-84%), 2022 (-77%). See Bitcoin Allocation for the full historical context.
- The suggested range is for the Bitcoin portion only. The remainder of your portfolio should follow standard diversificationdiversificationSpreading investments across different assets so a drop in one doesn't devastate your entire portfolio.Full definition principles.
Not financial advice. Bitcoin has declined 80%+ multiple times in its history. Only allocate what you can hold through that scenario without selling.
HOW THIS IS CALCULATED
This tool runs entirely in your browser: no data is sent to any server.
The range comes from a fixed rule table, not a formula. The rules run in this order and the first match sets the base range:
- Horizon under 3 years: 0%.
- Would sell immediately in an 80% drawdown: 0%.
- 3 to 10 years: 0 to 2% if you would likely sell; 2 to 5% if you would hold or buy more.
- 10 to 20 years: 5 to 15% if you would hold comfortably or buy more; 2 to 10% otherwise.
- Over 20 years: 10 to 25% if you would buy more; 5 to 20% if you would hold comfortably; 2 to 10% otherwise (the same as 10 to 20 years, so a longer horizon never gives a narrower range).
- Medium-term savings with a horizon over 10 years: the range is capped at the 3 to 10 year range for the same drawdown answer (0 to 2% or 2 to 5%).
The financial-situation answer then trims the range: no emergency fund takes 2 points off the low end and 5 off the high end; an emergency fund with high-interest debt takes off 1 and 3; neither trim goes below 0. Low-rate debt counts as "no high-interest debt" and takes nothing off; "maxed tax-advantaged accounts, no debt" also takes nothing off, so it gives the same range as "no high-interest debt". When a trim applies, the reasoning states the base range and the trimmed result. Money needed within 5 years overrides everything: 0 to 1%, or 0% when the other answers already give 0%. Medium-term savings are capped as above, before the trim; retirement and generational wealth do not change the range. A range whose two ends match is shown as a single figure, for example 0%.
Dollar range = investable net worth × low % and × high %, rounded to whole dollars (one figure when the two ends match). A blank net worth shows a prompt instead of dollar amounts; one the browser cannot read, or one so large that a dollar figure would pass about $9 quadrillion (the largest whole number the browser holds exactly), shows a note saying so; a negative one shows a note that there is nothing to allocate. Rebalancing lines: trim when Bitcoin grows past the high end + 5 points; the lower line is the low end - 2 points, and when that is 0% or less the box says there is no lower trigger, since a holding cannot fall below 0%. At a 0% range the box says there is nothing to rebalance. A shared link that carries an answer the tool does not offer resets that question to its default, and the reasoning says so. The ~6% APR debt threshold in the Q4 option label and the reasoning text is a site rule of thumb, not a published standard. Age, income and taxes are not inputs.
Verify the methodology or inspect the source code in your browser's dev tools.
Where to go from here
Calculators are educational estimates, not financial advice. Disclosures · How pages are reviewed