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5 MIN READ

The real estate
question.

Housing is usually the largest line item in any household budget. Buy or rent is the most common decision in personal finance. Here is the honest math, without the "renting is throwing money away" myth or the "buying always builds wealth" myth.

READING TIME: ~9 MIN

THE SHORT VERSION

Roughly 5 percent of a home's value evaporates every year to property tax, maintenance, and the opportunity cost of the down payment. If equivalent rent is below that 5 percent figure, renting and investing the difference wins on the math. If above, buying wins. The decision is not about pride or "throwing money away." It is about a 5 percent number and your time horizon. Plan to stay 7+ years and the transaction costs amortize. Plan to move in 3 years and they crush you.

The 5% rule (Ben Felix)

Ben Felix at PWL Capital popularized a clean framework for the rent-vs-buy decision. The unrecoverable annual cost of owning a home is roughly 5 percent of the home's value: about 1 percent for property tax, 1 percent for maintenance, and 3 percent for cost of capital (what the down payment could earn if invested elsewhere).

If 5 percent of the home's value exceeds annual rent for an equivalent home, renting and investing the difference is mathematically better, before any non-financial considerations. If annual rent exceeds 5 percent of equivalent home value, buying is better.

WORKED EXAMPLE

A $500,000 home costs roughly $25,000 a year unrecoverably. If you can rent a comparable home for $1,800/month ($21,600/year), renting wins on paper, before factoring in flexibility and the absence of maintenance hassle. If equivalent rent is $2,400/month ($28,800/year), buying wins on paper.

The real costs of owning

The mortgage payment is just the start. The full cost of homeownership has many lines that show up unevenly through the year and are easy to underestimate.

~1% / YR
Property tax
Varies enormously by state. Texas and New Jersey run 2 percent or higher. California Prop 13 caps inflation but base rate is around 1 percent. Reset upward at every sale.
~1% / YR
Maintenance
Roof every 25 years, water heater every 10, HVAC every 15, exterior paint every 7. Average to roughly 1 percent of home value per year over the long run, lumpy in any single year.
~3% / YR
Opportunity cost of capital
A $100K down payment in an S&P 500 index fund would average roughly 7 percent real returns. The 3 percent in the 5 percent rule is conservative.
~0.3-0.6%
Insurance
Homeowners insurance, plus flood/earthquake riders in some regions. Premiums have risen sharply in the past 5 years in climate-exposed areas.
$300-700/mo
HOA fees
If applicable. Condos and planned communities can have meaningful monthly HOA dues, plus surprise special assessments.
~6-10% / SALE
Transaction costs
Realtor commission (typically 5-6 percent), closing costs, inspection, title insurance, moving. Round-trip, expect 8 to 12 percent of home value, paid each time you buy or sell.

"Renting is throwing money away" - the myth

Rent buys a year of housing. So does the 5 percent of home value that an owner spends on tax, maintenance, and opportunity cost. The owner also gets a small slice of "principal paydown" each month, which is real, but the early years of a 30-year mortgage are mostly interest, not principal.

In year one of a $400,000 mortgage at 7 percent, roughly $28,000 of the $32,000 in payments is interest. That interest is not building equity; it is being paid to the bank. Calling that "not throwing money away" while calling rent payments "throwing money away" is rhetoric, not math.

The honest framing: rent buys a year of flexibility, no maintenance burden, and zero exposure to housing market drawdowns. Owning buys a year of stability, potential equity growth, and exposure (positive or negative) to the housing market. Both purchases are real. Neither is throwing money away.

When to buy

You plan to stay 7+ years

Transaction costs (8 to 12 percent round-trip) need years to amortize. A 3-year stay almost always loses money on net even in a flat market.

Stable income and stable life

A relocation in year 2 forces you to either sell at transaction-cost loss or become an accidental landlord. Buy when both your career and family situation are predictable for the next 5 to 7 years.

20% down payment saved (or close)

PMI on lower down payments is real money. FHA loans work but add monthly insurance for the life of the loan in many cases. The 20 percent floor exists for a reason.

Local price-to-rent ratio reasonable

Run the 5 percent rule for your specific market. Buying makes financial sense in many of the Midwest and South. Buying often does not make financial sense in much of coastal California, NYC, Seattle, and Boston unless rent is extreme.

When to rent

Career mobility matters

If your income trajectory depends on the option to relocate (tech, sales, consulting, federal jobs), the flexibility of renting is worth more than the equity of owning.

Variable or unpredictable income

A mortgage is a fixed obligation. Rent can be downsized at lease renewal. Variable-income households (freelancers, founders, commission-heavy roles) often benefit from the flexibility of renting until cash flow stabilizes.

Local market is overheated

If 5 percent of home value massively exceeds equivalent rent, the math says rent and invest the difference. Buying for "lifestyle" reasons in an overpriced market is a luxury purchase, not a financial one. That is a legitimate choice; just be honest about it.

Bitcoin and the down payment question

Bitcoin is too volatile to be a down payment fund. A 40 percent drawdown in the 18 months you are saving for a house can erase the down payment and the closing costs together. Down payment money lives in HYSA or short-term Treasuries, full stop.

The harder question: should you sell your existing Bitcoin position to fund a larger down payment? For Bitcoin maximalists, the answer is usually no. For more diversified investors, selling 20 to 30 percent of a Bitcoin position to push a down payment from 10 to 20 percent is a reasonable trade-off. The PMI savings are immediate and certain; the foregone Bitcoin upside is potential and uncertain.

A smaller subset of buyers in some jurisdictions now uses Bitcoin-collateralized loans to fund down payments without selling. The mechanics carry liquidation risk during sharp Bitcoin drawdowns and should be approached with the same caution as any margin product.

Sources & Citations
  1. Ben Felix, "The 5% Rule of Real Estate Investing" (PWL Capital / Rational Reminder) - youtube.com/@BenFelixCSI
  2. Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index - fhfa.gov/data/hpi
  3. National Association of Realtors median home price data [VERIFY] - nar.realtor
  4. NYT Rent vs Buy calculator - nytimes.com
  5. Tax Foundation property tax rates by state [VERIFY] - taxfoundation.org

Last updated 2026-04-14. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

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